Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 68757.878671 72732.731337 76713.599358 80996.639245 85471.483396 90005.730921 94944.472596
2025-03-23 62557.889429 68652.373604 74934.170332 81883.422217 89346.091684 97109.781242 105787.650504
2025-03-30 58076.282354 65621.629508 73577.332300 82571.312846 92436.465673 102907.810017 114842.751215
2025-04-06 54254.982271 62840.468621 72067.840082 82690.315153 94547.846891 107343.301208 122160.719791
2025-04-13 51016.552358 60397.778215 70651.771313 82644.523227 96236.682396 111113.545856 128576.676042
2025-04-20 49072.350348 59228.350534 70494.689726 83854.642941 99196.929800 116195.554644 136382.247812
2025-04-27 47375.485586 58204.461537 70381.359403 85003.779357 101997.083118 121032.935507 143875.089562
2025-05-04 45549.764748 56911.708374 69852.737328 85577.468469 104056.396486 124968.941415 150305.527438
2025-05-11 43590.398556 55354.221384 68918.904958 85588.471443 105385.970956 128008.079370 155665.050971
2025-05-18 41925.988145 54064.140627 68223.900875 85809.977803 106903.216190 131223.181984 161206.013442
2025-05-25 40336.564504 52789.748410 67479.981154 85910.539920 108225.378531 134173.508433 166417.576862
2025-06-01 39360.195830 52217.486186 67540.368053 86943.119217 110636.501476 138400.471193 173147.882192
2025-06-08 37739.628473 50801.640366 66539.341145 86663.897234 111461.623660 140756.183962 177694.663883
2025-06-15 36984.886687 50441.961771 66815.215124 87936.829195 114173.039158 145390.382600 185014.468959
2025-06-22 36058.424082 49823.619986 66735.376989 88741.536761 116293.539795 149308.367853 191485.868183
2025-06-29 34882.906011 48839.467174 66155.438894 88884.715151 117568.342778 152181.750577 196686.869250
2025-07-06 33692.693129 47792.199015 65455.574319 88839.970051 118579.764986 154714.483973 201466.948689
2025-07-13 33161.575137 47586.137680 65812.100112 90123.870872 121254.119225 159305.923061 208808.158611
2025-07-20 32634.204418 47362.014810 66127.188102 91342.267373 123842.611394 163800.037203 216055.287321
2025-07-27 31878.126927 46803.908026 65984.334887 91950.413304 125643.347265 167310.691545 222092.074376
2025-08-03 30914.229280 45932.951666 65402.607573 91962.085693 126660.705092 169828.263625 226888.078142
2025-08-10 30087.357771 45221.794962 65007.680967 92196.869190 127950.507619 172684.118342 232117.265097
2025-08-17 29249.004231 44468.054413 64531.901373 92303.456324 129058.424502 175302.581477 237051.737731